Update: From interviews this morning just now - looks like such a policy option of export tax is already being considered, if one was to read between the lines what premier of alberta said and what ottawa said. everyone is now getting down to business - it won't be pretty and in won't be short. Markets down 2% already. This will test - whether market bends US administration, or insanity will continue. game on...
Well right off the bat which Canadian media do you think, outside of the CBC, who will report anything extremely critical of the USA, since 95% of ALL of Canada’s media, print, TV and on line are ALL OWNED by Americans, who support Trump? Our Media is in the same state the American media is. Taken over by extremist right wingers or those who bend the knee to fascists to cover their own asses!
Unfortunately, even CBC debates thus far are mostly around usual lines - inter province trade, buy Canadian, and impose retaliatory tariffs. Proposing these options above is to ask, if Canada can be smarter in its policy response. And so far, experts seem to follow expected lines, and not mention the larger elephant in the room that 1 trillion investment. Agreed, it won't be easy to move money, for it can hurt pensioners. But if managed well, and presented as a policy option, Canadian Government may have some leeway exploring this. CBC also perhaps needs look outside their usual suspects/ experts. There may be other options we haven't explored yet, as we got caught in the narratives of our southern neighbor.
We need a leader who understands world finance in all its intricacies. No provincial leaders who want to invest in Bitcoin, which is falling pretty fast right now. Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme that is great if you get in and get out, but anyone who thinks it's a investment long term is doomed to failure. There is no intrinsic value there.
You mean like Mark Carney who was governor of Bank of Canada AND the UK? I’m just a concerned Canadian, but I do know my retirement fund 1/2 of it is invested in the US market, and so are most of my friends. I like this or any ideas that’s ‘outside the box’ especially against this bully administration. They’ve always treated us like their inferior little friend who should always be quiet and grateful to them. But now, they’re threatening us! And they’re no longer a reliable ally, so it’s definitely the time to make some big noise!
I know a little bit about pension plan funding in Canada.
Do you think that the Governor of the Bank of Canada has control over your personal pension funds? In what way?
Your personal retirement funds (RRSPs / RRIFs) are yours to invest in anything you wish. Why have you and most of your friends invested half of those funds in the U.S. market?
Because the US has always been our greatest ally, neighbors and partner. But, Trump has changed all that! He’s attacking and is threatening to annex us? Nothing can be off the table now, I think these ideas are worth researching.
Sorry - I thought you were putting down Carney because he was somehow involved in Bitcoin - which I am pretty sure he is not, but re-reading your post, I think you and I agree that Carney would make a great leader "who understands world finances".
Just a reminder, you and your friends can get your personal retirement funds out of the U.S. market anytime you like, so perhaps now would be a good time! I removed all of my exposure to equities a couple of weeks ago from my RRSP and am very glad I did.
Yes I absolutely agree that Mark Carney is the leader Canada needs, he understands finance, he’s brilliant, experienced and helped guide us through the crash of 2008! We don’t need Poilievre that’s for sure!! And thank you, I took all my registered investments out of the US market too.
An interesting take, definitely worth deeper analysis. One weakness in the use of Canadian crude as a bargaining chip is the global nature of the supply stream. It is true that those US refineries configured for Canadian tar sands crude will have to reconfigure at significant cost, but that isn’t impossible, and the longer term impact might be harder on Canada.
Any drop in global crude supply raises the profit margin on new oil. Cutting off Canadian crude makes now dormant shale fields potentially profitable to reopen. Refineries that re-configure for low-sulphur crude won’t be likely to go back once the Trump nightmare is over in a few years.
The much more powerful lever is capital reallocation. A shift there is much more positively impactful for Canada in the long term. More integration into investments and partnerships with the Euro-Zone economies would make the single largest and most economically diverse rival against the America. And since so many services are also financial, the effect would likely be multiplicative to the upside.
Venezuela and Saudi's have the capacity to most easily replace that supply in short run, but politically that would not be easy perhaps, and transportation/ supply chain risk cost may outweigh those option? Yes, this mix of options is more of a 'tactic', to play that chicken game, on Canadian terms. Re directly Canadian capital also won't be easy either, but that too is a policy option to simply say - it is not only goods trade deficit - we need to have services and capital in the mix. And, perhaps, most importantly, engage Canadians in this larger canvas rather than keep us occupied on why we should stop buying American cherries and strawberries. This policy option explorations are mostly for 'deterrence' than actual use, possibly. Though there are risks. And our over-reliance on defense and security is perhaps a card we will find it harder to fight against. Game on on the world stage! There is so much to learn, understand. Trick perhaps is to shy away from start treating neighbors as adversaries, while fighting a good fight! Thanks for your post.
Current US Administration holds many more bargaining options, including and specially around security and NORAD and 5Is. While that has not come to the table, that must be lurking, one can assume. perhaps good news is - US admin has opened up too many fronts too quickly - Europe, Ukraine, Western Asia/ Palestine, Panama Canal, Green Land, Mexico, Canada, China, India, South Korea... and suggesting Russia a potential ally. if it was smarter, it would have done all this over next 3-4 years rather than in one month. The cat is out of the bag. And chances are, it will be much harder to manage it on so many different fronts (and domestically) at the same time. But crazy leaders have done worse, so your guess will be as good as mine. BUT - something gotta give, perhaps sooner than later. Am again reminded of Chinese curse 'may you live in interesting times...' seem to be coming true. thoughts?
As a German/Canadian I am afraid that I do not understand the Chinese curse thing. So I do not really understand what you mean and if it is good or bad but I understand that you did not answer my concerns or my question and that your only concern is that everything happens at the same time. You seem not at all to be concerned about democracy or that the US are now aligned with Russia and Putin instead of other democracies and just humiliated and abounded Ukraine. You seem not to be concerned at all that a trade war is started for no reason with your most reliable and trustworthy trade partner and neighbour who always was on your side, for absolutely no other reason than to crush Canada economically, probably in order to get us to crawl and ask you politely to annex us - which never is going to happen anyway. And Trump is not at all concerned about how badly the American people will be affected by this either. He seems just to want to see it as a mean of getting cash for his crazy 4.5 trillion in tax cuts for the billionaires in the US. It is dumb, crazy, dangerous and betrayal of his voters, his neighbours, his allies.
simply speaking, it is not possible to know how this will play out, in my limited understanding. A lot of what is being done by US Administration is beyond bizarre. And will hurt many, here, in US and around the world, and not just economically. One can't truly imagine what Gazans must be going through for example. But. US Administration believes it is too big to fail (economically, military power, technology, financial markets), and that is a concerning reality. This pain is likely to continue for some time. Project 2025 lays down a lot of this in detail. We can hope that by opening so many war fronts at the same time, it will start backfiring sooner than later. But that is a hope, not an analytical conclusion one can draw easily. We are in an uncharted territory. And the upcoming pains are likely to be very real, here at home, and many other places, including for many south of the border. Hope i am wrong.
I’m sure the Administration and its enablers have an end goal but outsiders can only guess. Whatever it is, it will benefit a handful of oligarchs to the detriment of the overwhelming majority. Perhaps they want to collapse the world economy so Nazi-saluting Musk can buy up assets at bargain basement prices. The last election was supposedly about the price of eggs but now it’s difficult to even buy eggs, and the stock market is collapsing. Where’s the outrage? (The election was actually about misogyny and racism). Their huge Achilles heel is that they are making enemies both within and outside the U.S. as most people abhor American fascism and being told what to think and believe. Americans do not want to suffer, as Musk has stated, so he and his oligarch allies can get their massive tax cuts. Trump only governs for the minority of Americans who voted for him, and even they are probably not so sure anymore. I agree that the crisis will occur sooner rather than later.
Start by advertising the investment pullback. We've got some huge pension funds like CPP, QPP, Ontario teachers, OPSEU just to name a few. I'm sure their fund managers would be happy to start redirecting the US investments elsewhere
Good thoughts. Last time the Americans effed up, in 2008, my bank (in Canada) lost 1/3 of my investments savings, and that was luckier than other countries and clients, as our Canadian banks were not deregulated. but had invested in American assets.
There are ways to incentivize moving it to canada - tax incentives on domestic investments, tax foreign income at higher level, offer secured infrastructure bonds and incentivize domestic investment in infra, green energy (similar to what Biden did). Idea will be to pull and push and not ‘direct’, using policy instruments. But will need careful designing for sure.
…as long as we stick to incentives! The reason Canadian Investment Funds are among the healthiest in the world is, with the exception of Quebec, governments are totally hands off. It’s a slippery path if we start down the road of telling theses funds where to invest!
The playbook has moved on way beyond, since. In my respectful opinion, the headline is misconstrued. Alberta is canada. Period. And that headline widens that wedge rather than bridging it.
Current negotiations between provinces are not without tension but impressive that everyone is able to keep the differences under wraps. Our relatively small size allows us a little more possibility to have negotiated unified position.
In current times, canada perhaps will have to rejig its federal structure, and look at notwithstanding clause more closely. It leaves a possibility of disastrous consequences, perhaps. There is so much to learn!!
The USA needs to court Alberta. We are a pariah in Canada. We are Canada’s wealthiest province. We are hated & over-taxed. Our province pays crippling equalization payments. Our oil industry is vilified & punished.
It’s a win - win scenario.
Alberta tells it’s parasitic eastern overlords to pound sand, aaaannndddd,
The USA gets a new state with a population similar to Alabama or Louisiana.
The USA gets a jurisdiction with plenty of farmland, two metropolitan cities, beautiful mountain parks, and of course…
the THIRD LARGEST OIL RESERVES on the PLANET. The energy future of the USA is guaranteed.
A repatriation project isn't necessarily a terrible idea, selling into the storm isn't super appealing but the mathematics could be adjusted, maybe something like extra RRSP/TFSA room for US equity sold.
These are all great ideas however I do believe Trump does not care how it impacts them or us. He's not letting congress vote on anything because the only opinion he cares about is his.
The US is the biggest producer of crude in the world while only having the 11th largest supply of known reserves. This is going to be a big problem in the future. How far out I which anyone knew.
We do need to have better ties with other countries.
Correct. We perhaps have a good understanding of what current US Administration wants. And project 2025 gives us some insights of the playbook. It is a 180 degrees reversal of American capitalism and boundless global trade. Core question perhaps is - can America pull off contradiction between a protected domestic market and also treat world as its market at the same time? Rest of players and quickly realizing this tension and trying to pivot, adjust. Can amarican policy have its cake and eat it too in the longer term? Possibly. I think, that game is on. And future is not pre decided, it will depend of what players do to adjust, rearrange their trade relationships. And in all this - biggest casualty is the basic idea of preserving earth better. And of a world based on human rights and dignity. These are much bigger shifts beyond oil and refineries. But intricately linked, seems like. We do live in interesting times…
Yes the Donald administration seems to be able to act without compassion or consequences. This will embolden a lot of bad behavior that will take a long time to turn around. The environment and human rights will suffer until then.
Interesting times, a favorite expression. I have for a long time felt I was born in just about the right time in history and about the right place, Canada in 1976. This has allowed me to live through one of the most prosperous periods in history free from impact from war. I hope the next decade doesn't prove me wrong.
U.S. refineries are significantly reliant on Canadian crude oil, with Canada supplying over 60% of U.S. crude oil imports in 2024. Many of these refineries, particularly in the Midwest, are configured to process heavier grades of crude oil, such as those from Canada. This specialization, along with established infrastructure, makes replacing Canadian oil challenging.
Imposing a 25% export tariff by Canada on its oil to the U.S. would likely increase costs for U.S. refiners, especially those dependent on Canadian heavy crude. This could lead to higher gasoline prices for consumers, particularly in regions like the Midwest that rely heavily on Canadian oil. In 2024, the U.S. petroleum refining industry’s revenue was estimated at approximately $688 billion. A significant tariff could disrupt operations and financial performance, potentially affecting a substantial portion of this revenue, depending on the ability of refineries to adapt to alternative crude sources and the elasticity of consumer demand. 
Several major U.S. refineries that process Canadian crude oil include:
Refinery Name Location Operator Capacity (barrels per day)
Galveston Bay Refinery Texas City, Texas Marathon Petroleum 631,000
Port Arthur Refinery Port Arthur, Texas Motiva Enterprises 626,000
In summary, U.S. refineries are currently highly dependent on Canadian oil, and a 25% export tariff imposed by Canada could have significant financial implications for the U.S. refining industry, leading to increased fuel prices for consumers and potential disruptions in refinery operations.
I'm aware of all that. An export tariff may benefit Canada as long as it's low enough that they aren't motivated to adjust their refineries. This may eventually backfire when they run out of their own oil and become more aggressive about getting ours.
Correct. This will have to be a policy option available and ready to be used as a negotiation chip. looks like alberta and ottawa are already considering it.
Update: From interviews this morning just now - looks like such a policy option of export tax is already being considered, if one was to read between the lines what premier of alberta said and what ottawa said. everyone is now getting down to business - it won't be pretty and in won't be short. Markets down 2% already. This will test - whether market bends US administration, or insanity will continue. game on...
Well right off the bat which Canadian media do you think, outside of the CBC, who will report anything extremely critical of the USA, since 95% of ALL of Canada’s media, print, TV and on line are ALL OWNED by Americans, who support Trump? Our Media is in the same state the American media is. Taken over by extremist right wingers or those who bend the knee to fascists to cover their own asses!
Unfortunately, even CBC debates thus far are mostly around usual lines - inter province trade, buy Canadian, and impose retaliatory tariffs. Proposing these options above is to ask, if Canada can be smarter in its policy response. And so far, experts seem to follow expected lines, and not mention the larger elephant in the room that 1 trillion investment. Agreed, it won't be easy to move money, for it can hurt pensioners. But if managed well, and presented as a policy option, Canadian Government may have some leeway exploring this. CBC also perhaps needs look outside their usual suspects/ experts. There may be other options we haven't explored yet, as we got caught in the narratives of our southern neighbor.
We need a leader who understands world finance in all its intricacies. No provincial leaders who want to invest in Bitcoin, which is falling pretty fast right now. Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme that is great if you get in and get out, but anyone who thinks it's a investment long term is doomed to failure. There is no intrinsic value there.
You mean like Mark Carney who was governor of Bank of Canada AND the UK? I’m just a concerned Canadian, but I do know my retirement fund 1/2 of it is invested in the US market, and so are most of my friends. I like this or any ideas that’s ‘outside the box’ especially against this bully administration. They’ve always treated us like their inferior little friend who should always be quiet and grateful to them. But now, they’re threatening us! And they’re no longer a reliable ally, so it’s definitely the time to make some big noise!
I know a little bit about pension plan funding in Canada.
Do you think that the Governor of the Bank of Canada has control over your personal pension funds? In what way?
Your personal retirement funds (RRSPs / RRIFs) are yours to invest in anything you wish. Why have you and most of your friends invested half of those funds in the U.S. market?
Because the US has always been our greatest ally, neighbors and partner. But, Trump has changed all that! He’s attacking and is threatening to annex us? Nothing can be off the table now, I think these ideas are worth researching.
Sorry - I thought you were putting down Carney because he was somehow involved in Bitcoin - which I am pretty sure he is not, but re-reading your post, I think you and I agree that Carney would make a great leader "who understands world finances".
Just a reminder, you and your friends can get your personal retirement funds out of the U.S. market anytime you like, so perhaps now would be a good time! I removed all of my exposure to equities a couple of weeks ago from my RRSP and am very glad I did.
Yes I absolutely agree that Mark Carney is the leader Canada needs, he understands finance, he’s brilliant, experienced and helped guide us through the crash of 2008! We don’t need Poilievre that’s for sure!! And thank you, I took all my registered investments out of the US market too.
Exactly what I was going to say but decided to first check to see if anyone else had already done so
An interesting take, definitely worth deeper analysis. One weakness in the use of Canadian crude as a bargaining chip is the global nature of the supply stream. It is true that those US refineries configured for Canadian tar sands crude will have to reconfigure at significant cost, but that isn’t impossible, and the longer term impact might be harder on Canada.
Any drop in global crude supply raises the profit margin on new oil. Cutting off Canadian crude makes now dormant shale fields potentially profitable to reopen. Refineries that re-configure for low-sulphur crude won’t be likely to go back once the Trump nightmare is over in a few years.
The much more powerful lever is capital reallocation. A shift there is much more positively impactful for Canada in the long term. More integration into investments and partnerships with the Euro-Zone economies would make the single largest and most economically diverse rival against the America. And since so many services are also financial, the effect would likely be multiplicative to the upside.
Venezuela and Saudi's have the capacity to most easily replace that supply in short run, but politically that would not be easy perhaps, and transportation/ supply chain risk cost may outweigh those option? Yes, this mix of options is more of a 'tactic', to play that chicken game, on Canadian terms. Re directly Canadian capital also won't be easy either, but that too is a policy option to simply say - it is not only goods trade deficit - we need to have services and capital in the mix. And, perhaps, most importantly, engage Canadians in this larger canvas rather than keep us occupied on why we should stop buying American cherries and strawberries. This policy option explorations are mostly for 'deterrence' than actual use, possibly. Though there are risks. And our over-reliance on defense and security is perhaps a card we will find it harder to fight against. Game on on the world stage! There is so much to learn, understand. Trick perhaps is to shy away from start treating neighbors as adversaries, while fighting a good fight! Thanks for your post.
I don't believe shale deposits are reliable, they don't last and the market for sweet crude is limited. They need heavy crude to make it marketable.
Do you really think that the Trump nightmare is going to end at some point? Do you really think there will be fair mid terms or upcoming elections?
Current US Administration holds many more bargaining options, including and specially around security and NORAD and 5Is. While that has not come to the table, that must be lurking, one can assume. perhaps good news is - US admin has opened up too many fronts too quickly - Europe, Ukraine, Western Asia/ Palestine, Panama Canal, Green Land, Mexico, Canada, China, India, South Korea... and suggesting Russia a potential ally. if it was smarter, it would have done all this over next 3-4 years rather than in one month. The cat is out of the bag. And chances are, it will be much harder to manage it on so many different fronts (and domestically) at the same time. But crazy leaders have done worse, so your guess will be as good as mine. BUT - something gotta give, perhaps sooner than later. Am again reminded of Chinese curse 'may you live in interesting times...' seem to be coming true. thoughts?
As a German/Canadian I am afraid that I do not understand the Chinese curse thing. So I do not really understand what you mean and if it is good or bad but I understand that you did not answer my concerns or my question and that your only concern is that everything happens at the same time. You seem not at all to be concerned about democracy or that the US are now aligned with Russia and Putin instead of other democracies and just humiliated and abounded Ukraine. You seem not to be concerned at all that a trade war is started for no reason with your most reliable and trustworthy trade partner and neighbour who always was on your side, for absolutely no other reason than to crush Canada economically, probably in order to get us to crawl and ask you politely to annex us - which never is going to happen anyway. And Trump is not at all concerned about how badly the American people will be affected by this either. He seems just to want to see it as a mean of getting cash for his crazy 4.5 trillion in tax cuts for the billionaires in the US. It is dumb, crazy, dangerous and betrayal of his voters, his neighbours, his allies.
simply speaking, it is not possible to know how this will play out, in my limited understanding. A lot of what is being done by US Administration is beyond bizarre. And will hurt many, here, in US and around the world, and not just economically. One can't truly imagine what Gazans must be going through for example. But. US Administration believes it is too big to fail (economically, military power, technology, financial markets), and that is a concerning reality. This pain is likely to continue for some time. Project 2025 lays down a lot of this in detail. We can hope that by opening so many war fronts at the same time, it will start backfiring sooner than later. But that is a hope, not an analytical conclusion one can draw easily. We are in an uncharted territory. And the upcoming pains are likely to be very real, here at home, and many other places, including for many south of the border. Hope i am wrong.
I’m sure the Administration and its enablers have an end goal but outsiders can only guess. Whatever it is, it will benefit a handful of oligarchs to the detriment of the overwhelming majority. Perhaps they want to collapse the world economy so Nazi-saluting Musk can buy up assets at bargain basement prices. The last election was supposedly about the price of eggs but now it’s difficult to even buy eggs, and the stock market is collapsing. Where’s the outrage? (The election was actually about misogyny and racism). Their huge Achilles heel is that they are making enemies both within and outside the U.S. as most people abhor American fascism and being told what to think and believe. Americans do not want to suffer, as Musk has stated, so he and his oligarch allies can get their massive tax cuts. Trump only governs for the minority of Americans who voted for him, and even they are probably not so sure anymore. I agree that the crisis will occur sooner rather than later.
I also think that is a pipe dream Ruth. They will not be easily removed. They unlawfully entered and they have plans to stay.
Smart thinking 🤠 I guess the challenge is to get the attention of the people who can put them into action.
Yes, indeed. these may actually sound too simple and too good to be true. But sometimes the answers are right before us…
Start by advertising the investment pullback. We've got some huge pension funds like CPP, QPP, Ontario teachers, OPSEU just to name a few. I'm sure their fund managers would be happy to start redirecting the US investments elsewhere
Good thoughts. Last time the Americans effed up, in 2008, my bank (in Canada) lost 1/3 of my investments savings, and that was luckier than other countries and clients, as our Canadian banks were not deregulated. but had invested in American assets.
Good point. What is that minimum level of oversight? We all know what happened in 2007-8. It can happen again.
Nice Harai Goshi photo
Great idea. How could it be done? The government doesn't control our investments.
There are ways to incentivize moving it to canada - tax incentives on domestic investments, tax foreign income at higher level, offer secured infrastructure bonds and incentivize domestic investment in infra, green energy (similar to what Biden did). Idea will be to pull and push and not ‘direct’, using policy instruments. But will need careful designing for sure.
…as long as we stick to incentives! The reason Canadian Investment Funds are among the healthiest in the world is, with the exception of Quebec, governments are totally hands off. It’s a slippery path if we start down the road of telling theses funds where to invest!
I wish you could email this article to the heads of our Government
Great info and leverage points! @Line Editor
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jordan-peterson-canada-must-offer-alberta-more-than-trump-could
The playbook has moved on way beyond, since. In my respectful opinion, the headline is misconstrued. Alberta is canada. Period. And that headline widens that wedge rather than bridging it.
Current negotiations between provinces are not without tension but impressive that everyone is able to keep the differences under wraps. Our relatively small size allows us a little more possibility to have negotiated unified position.
In current times, canada perhaps will have to rejig its federal structure, and look at notwithstanding clause more closely. It leaves a possibility of disastrous consequences, perhaps. There is so much to learn!!
I’m posting this message everywhere that I can.
The USA needs to court Alberta. We are a pariah in Canada. We are Canada’s wealthiest province. We are hated & over-taxed. Our province pays crippling equalization payments. Our oil industry is vilified & punished.
It’s a win - win scenario.
Alberta tells it’s parasitic eastern overlords to pound sand, aaaannndddd,
The USA gets a new state with a population similar to Alabama or Louisiana.
The USA gets a jurisdiction with plenty of farmland, two metropolitan cities, beautiful mountain parks, and of course…
the THIRD LARGEST OIL RESERVES on the PLANET. The energy future of the USA is guaranteed.
A repatriation project isn't necessarily a terrible idea, selling into the storm isn't super appealing but the mathematics could be adjusted, maybe something like extra RRSP/TFSA room for US equity sold.
Very interesting read. 🙏🏼 Insights all Canadians should know about! 🇨🇦💪🏻
Brilliant!
Thanks 🙏🏼
Canadians, do it! Or else we’ll send JD Vance to ‚merisplain stuff to you.
These are all great ideas however I do believe Trump does not care how it impacts them or us. He's not letting congress vote on anything because the only opinion he cares about is his.
The US is the biggest producer of crude in the world while only having the 11th largest supply of known reserves. This is going to be a big problem in the future. How far out I which anyone knew.
We do need to have better ties with other countries.
Correct. We perhaps have a good understanding of what current US Administration wants. And project 2025 gives us some insights of the playbook. It is a 180 degrees reversal of American capitalism and boundless global trade. Core question perhaps is - can America pull off contradiction between a protected domestic market and also treat world as its market at the same time? Rest of players and quickly realizing this tension and trying to pivot, adjust. Can amarican policy have its cake and eat it too in the longer term? Possibly. I think, that game is on. And future is not pre decided, it will depend of what players do to adjust, rearrange their trade relationships. And in all this - biggest casualty is the basic idea of preserving earth better. And of a world based on human rights and dignity. These are much bigger shifts beyond oil and refineries. But intricately linked, seems like. We do live in interesting times…
Yes the Donald administration seems to be able to act without compassion or consequences. This will embolden a lot of bad behavior that will take a long time to turn around. The environment and human rights will suffer until then.
Interesting times, a favorite expression. I have for a long time felt I was born in just about the right time in history and about the right place, Canada in 1976. This has allowed me to live through one of the most prosperous periods in history free from impact from war. I hope the next decade doesn't prove me wrong.
U.S. refineries are significantly reliant on Canadian crude oil, with Canada supplying over 60% of U.S. crude oil imports in 2024. Many of these refineries, particularly in the Midwest, are configured to process heavier grades of crude oil, such as those from Canada. This specialization, along with established infrastructure, makes replacing Canadian oil challenging.
Imposing a 25% export tariff by Canada on its oil to the U.S. would likely increase costs for U.S. refiners, especially those dependent on Canadian heavy crude. This could lead to higher gasoline prices for consumers, particularly in regions like the Midwest that rely heavily on Canadian oil. In 2024, the U.S. petroleum refining industry’s revenue was estimated at approximately $688 billion. A significant tariff could disrupt operations and financial performance, potentially affecting a substantial portion of this revenue, depending on the ability of refineries to adapt to alternative crude sources and the elasticity of consumer demand. 
Several major U.S. refineries that process Canadian crude oil include:
Refinery Name Location Operator Capacity (barrels per day)
Galveston Bay Refinery Texas City, Texas Marathon Petroleum 631,000
Port Arthur Refinery Port Arthur, Texas Motiva Enterprises 626,000
Beaumont Refinery Beaumont, Texas ExxonMobil 609,024
Garyville Refinery Garyville, Louisiana Marathon Petroleum 597,000
Baytown Refinery Baytown, Texas ExxonMobil 584,000
Whiting Refinery Whiting, Indiana BP 435,000
In summary, U.S. refineries are currently highly dependent on Canadian oil, and a 25% export tariff imposed by Canada could have significant financial implications for the U.S. refining industry, leading to increased fuel prices for consumers and potential disruptions in refinery operations.
I'm aware of all that. An export tariff may benefit Canada as long as it's low enough that they aren't motivated to adjust their refineries. This may eventually backfire when they run out of their own oil and become more aggressive about getting ours.
Correct. This will have to be a policy option available and ready to be used as a negotiation chip. looks like alberta and ottawa are already considering it.